The other day, I got into a rather interesting conversation with an acquaintance about the reality of macro-economics. Specifically the new complexities garnered due to emerging nations becoming power houses without ever fully emerging. Yes, in this discussion no doubt I had China in mind, and perhaps India to follow and how all that compared to the other BRIC nations, as well as countries like Mexico and their emerging global reach. Okay so, let’s talk.
My acquaintance and I began by coming to an understanding, the most basic of all that Macro-Economics is a vast topic, and we both enjoy considering. I did indeed ask him his thoughts on our trade flow challenges here in the United States, as it seems as the FED plays balance sheet trickery we are indeed causing inflation in our allied nations and trading partners. This becomes a huge problem for them, of course, they’ve unbalanced the global economy by mismanaging their own currencies (China perhaps the biggest culprit).
Then we also discussed other issues such as the on-going corruption, state-run capitalism run wild, subsidies, tariffs, and regulatory favoritism and not that we don’t engage in some of that too, however generally we do so in a tit-for-tat response to their poorly executed moves to harm us and help themselves – such negation of Western win-win style trade is a real problem. You see, it’s not as if a think tank is ever going to solve these problems or even that the FED, ECB, or other large nation’s central banking leaders in concert will ever fix the problem.
Why do I say that? Because everything is in a state-of-flux, everything done effects everything else, and because our mathematical economic modeling becomes far too complex, complicated, and with too many minor errors leading to a comedy of the same when we try to run the global economy by committee. Further, it maybe that it can run itself better when major parts of it are left completely alone without intervention. Ah, but how do you get humans to leave their greedy little hands of the flow of money, capital, resources, and labor?
You can’t and that’s the problem, so any move to counter act another only leads to continued challenges with the law of unintended consequences. So what’s the answer? Well, there isn’t one, and that’s what scares folks and why there is so much debate over it all. Personally, my nearest prescription would to make sure that politicians kept their politics off the money flows and central banking policies, as they are the least that can be trusted. Please consider all this and think on it.